Edmond de Rothschild – Weekly Economic Insights

Economist insights: Reassuring US employment report, slight shift in the ECB’s communication, the BoJ has confirmed its policy stance (p.1)

›       In the United States, the February employment report confirmed that wage growth remained contained, as we expected, which should limit the rise in inflation expectations

›       The ECB took a small step toward exiting its current monetary policy, which nevertheless should remain accommodative according to our scenario

›       In Japan, BoJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda confirmed that the bank will not be exiting its accommodative monetary policy in the immediate future

Focus Mexico: Outlook highly dependent on the trade policy of the United States (p.6)

›       Mexico’s economy should continue to decelerate in 2018, while important elections will be held in July

›       The central bank should favour a restrictive monetary policy in order to control inflation and the stability of the peso foreign exchange rate in an uncertain political and international context

›       The strong dependency of the Mexican economy makes it vulnerable to any protectionist decisions made by the US in the framework of the NAFTA renegotiations