Economist insights: Hurricane Harvey accelerates political decisions, ECB struggles to stop the euro’s rise, economic activity remains sustained in China
› Hurricane Harvey: its negative impact on GDP should be only temporary and not modify our monetary policy scenario. However, it has made it possible to reach a temporary solution to the debt ceiling
› The ECB has temporarily strengthened, almost despite itself, the euro’s exchange rate value
› In China, August’s PMI surveys confirm our scenario for activity growth to stabilise at a high level before the Communist Party Congress, which will be starting up on 18 October
Swiss focus: Swiss exports, guarantee of quality (p.7)
› Switzerland has specialised in exports of high value-added products that are not particularly sensitive to exchange rate fluctuations
› The Swiss franc’s recent depreciation is therefore expected to have a minor impact on export volumes, but could drive up profit margins
› Over the coming quarters, the export recovery is expected to be less dependent on the pharmaceutical industry and be broader-based on a sectorial basis
