Edmond de Rothschild – Macro Highlights – September 11th 2017 – Harvey, ECB and China & Swiss Exports

Economists' insight: The Fed steals Donald Trump’s thunder

Economist insights: Hurricane Harvey accelerates political decisions, ECB struggles to stop the euro’s rise, economic activity remains sustained in China

›       Hurricane Harvey: its negative impact on GDP should be only temporary and not modify our monetary policy scenario. However, it has made it possible to reach a temporary solution to the debt ceiling

›       The ECB has temporarily strengthened, almost despite itself, the euro’s exchange rate value

›       In China, August’s PMI surveys confirm our scenario for activity growth to stabilise at a high level before the Communist Party Congress, which will be starting up on 18 October

Swiss focus: Swiss exports, guarantee of quality (p.7)

›       Switzerland has specialised in exports of high value-added products that are not particularly sensitive to exchange rate fluctuations

›       The Swiss franc’s recent depreciation is therefore expected to have a minor impact on export volumes, but could drive up profit margins

›       Over the coming quarters, the export recovery is expected to be less dependent on the pharmaceutical industry and be broader-based on a sectorial basis


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