Edmond de Rothschild – Macro Highlights – November 2017

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Economists' insight: The Fed steals Donald Trump’s thunder

Economist insights: Tax cuts come a step closer in the US, slight economic slowdown in China (p.1)

The US House of Representatives has approved a bill on tax cuts, but their financing, although planned in the 2018 budget, remains uncertain. This could result in a widening of the deficit

Economic activity in China faced a slight slowdown in October. The measures relating to stricter management of the country’s financial imbalances should be ramped up over the coming months

The marked disinflation and the accommodative monetary policy maintained for the past few months in Brazil are behind the progress in private consumption

 

UK focus: No end to the deadlock in sight (p.4)

The economic slowdown that we forecast for 2017 has been confirmed and should continue in 2018, due to the persistent uncertainty surrounding the conditions for leaving the European Union (EU)

For 2019, there are two possible scenarios according to our analysis: a smooth transition for the UK’s exit from the EU or a definitive withdrawal without any agreement being reached

We expect no improvement in the economic outlook with either of these scenarios: the first, which is our central scenario, would see a further slowdown in activity, while the second would trigger a recession.

Macro Highlights - November 20th 2017 - US tax cuts, Chinese statistics & UK

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